NBA: the model's picks for Thursday, 12 November 2026

Thursday, 12 November 2026 brings Raptors vs Celtics, Bucks vs Lakers, Grizzlies vs Nuggets, Bulls vs Spurs, Rockets vs Warriors and Trail Blazers vs Thunder in the NBA. The first one starts Thu 12 Nov 2026, 8:00 AM PHT. Each game below has the model's pick, its chance and the facts behind it. NBA predictions has every open pick.

The model is surest about San Antonio Spurs, at 88%. The closest call is Oklahoma City Thunder against Portland Trail Blazers, at 60%. No pick is a sure thing, and every one of them is graded after the final result.

Celtics vs Raptors: what the numbers say

The model gives Celtics a 63% chance and Raptors 37%. For Celtics that is a strong pick, not a sure thing. It expects Celtics to win by about 3 points. The team ratings are 1516 for Raptors and 1641 for Celtics. There is more on the full Celtics vs Raptors pick.

Raptors are 2-3 over their last 5, with 116.6 points scored and 113.3 allowed a game over their last 10. In the NBA so far, Raptors are 7-8. Raptors sit in place 6 of 15 in Eastern Conference. Raptors get 2 days of rest before the start. Celtics are 4-1 over their last 5, with 115.0 points scored and 104.3 allowed a game over their last 10.

In the NBA so far, Celtics are 13-2. Celtics sit in place 2 of 15 in Eastern Conference. Celtics played the day before. The last time they met on 5 Apr 2026, Boston Celtics won 115-101.

Spurs vs Bulls: form and the model

The model gives Spurs a 88% chance and Bulls 12%. For Spurs that is a strong pick, not a sure thing. It expects Spurs to win by about 13 points. The team ratings are 1326 for Bulls and 1731 for Spurs. There is more on the full Spurs vs Bulls pick.

Bulls are 0-5 over their last 5, with 114.2 points scored and 131.3 allowed a game over their last 10. In the NBA so far, Bulls are 4-10. Bulls sit in place 14 of 15 in Eastern Conference. Bulls get 3 days of rest before the start. Spurs are 5-0 over their last 5, with 120.2 points scored and 106.1 allowed a game over their last 10.

In the NBA so far, Spurs are 11-5. Spurs sit in place 2 of 15 in Western Conference. Spurs get 2 days of rest before the start. The last time they met on 31 Mar 2026, San Antonio Spurs won 129-114.

Nuggets vs Grizzlies: the case for Nuggets

The model gives Nuggets a 66% chance and Grizzlies 34%. For Nuggets that is a strong pick, not a sure thing. It expects Nuggets to win by about 4 points. The team ratings are 1424 for Grizzlies and 1570 for Nuggets. There is more on the full Nuggets vs Grizzlies pick.

Grizzlies are 2-3 over their last 5, with 117.9 points scored and 110.8 allowed a game over their last 10. In the NBA so far, Grizzlies are 10-4. Grizzlies sit in place 7 of 15 in Western Conference. Grizzlies get 2 days of rest before the start. Nuggets are 3-2 over their last 5, with 112.0 points scored and 112.5 allowed a game over their last 10.

In the NBA so far, Nuggets are 8-6. Nuggets sit in place 10 of 15 in Western Conference. Nuggets get 2 days of rest before the start. The last time they met on 9 Apr 2026, Denver Nuggets won 136-119.

Lakers vs Bucks: what the numbers say

The model gives Lakers a 83% chance and Bucks 17%. For Lakers that is a strong pick, not a sure thing. It expects Lakers to win by about 10 points. The team ratings are 1314 for Bucks and 1623 for Lakers. There is more on the full Lakers vs Bucks pick.

Bucks are 0-5 over their last 5, with 108.4 points scored and 121.6 allowed a game over their last 10. In the NBA so far, Bucks are 3-13. Bucks sit in place 15 of 15 in Eastern Conference. Bucks played the day before. Lakers are 5-0 over their last 5, with 121.3 points scored and 115.1 allowed a game over their last 10.

In the NBA so far, Lakers are 12-5. Lakers sit in place 1 of 15 in Western Conference. Lakers get 2 days of rest before the start. The last time they met on 10 Jan 2026, Milwaukee Bucks won 105-101.

Rockets vs Warriors: what the numbers say

The model gives Rockets a 65% chance and Warriors 35%. For Rockets that is a strong pick, not a sure thing. It expects Rockets to win by about 4 points. The team ratings are 1630 for Rockets and 1550 for Warriors. There is more on the full Rockets vs Warriors pick.

Rockets are 3-2 over their last 5, with 114.2 points scored and 106.0 allowed a game over their last 10. In the NBA so far, Rockets are 10-4. Rockets sit in place 6 of 15 in Western Conference. Rockets get 2 days of rest before the start. Warriors are 5-0 over their last 5, with 121.9 points scored and 109.6 allowed a game over their last 10.

In the NBA so far, Warriors are 12-5. Warriors sit in place 5 of 15 in Western Conference. Warriors get 2 days of rest before the start. The last time they met on 6 Apr 2026, Houston Rockets won 117-116.

Thunder vs Trail Blazers: the case for Thunder

The model gives Thunder a 60% chance and Trail Blazers 40%. For Thunder that is a pick, not a sure thing. It expects Thunder to win by about 4 points. The team ratings are 1545 for Trail Blazers and 1675 for Thunder. There is more on the full Thunder vs Trail Blazers pick.

Trail Blazers are 3-2 over their last 5, with 116.9 points scored and 113.8 allowed a game over their last 10. In the NBA so far, Trail Blazers are 9-4. Trail Blazers sit in place 8 of 15 in Western Conference. Trail Blazers played the day before. Thunder are 4-1 over their last 5, with 112.2 points scored and 104.2 allowed a game over their last 10.

In the NBA so far, Thunder are 9-7. Thunder sit in place 3 of 15 in Western Conference. Thunder played the day before. The last time they met on 1 Jan 2026, Oklahoma City Thunder won 124-95.

All the picks together

Taken together, the model gives every pick on the day a 12% chance of coming in. That is the chances multiplied, so a ticket with all of them misses more often than any one pick does. See the track record for how past picks did.

Track record (shows after 30 settled picks)