Model picks in 3 games on Friday, with Governors' Cup quarter-finals on the card

Friday starts early in the NBA, when the Golden State Warriors play the Miami Heat at Chase Center at 11:00 AM PHT. The PBA Governors' Cup quarter-finals follow at 5:15 PM and 7:30 PM PHT. The model has a pick in all 3 games, and each sits at 57 percent with no close call.

Each pick carries the same 57 percent chance by the model. Taken together, the chance that every pick lands is 19 percent, so a clean day is unlikely. Both PBA games are quarter-finals, and neither venue has been announced. For every graded result, see the track record.

NBANBA1 game

Warriors are the model's pick as Heat play on a back-to-back

The model picks the Golden State Warriors at 57 percent over the Miami Heat at 43 percent. The Warriors are the home team at Chase Center.

Miami is on the 2nd night of a back-to-back after only 1 day of rest. Its record on that spot this season is 0-1. The Warriors have 3 days of rest and have won their last 5 games. This is game 4 of a 6-game home stand for Golden State.

Golden State beat Miami 135-112 on 20 Jan 2026. Miami won the earlier meeting 110-96 on 20 Nov 2025. Golden State sits 8th in the West at 5-3, while Miami is 9th in the East at 3-5. See the Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat pick for the full pick.

19 percentchance that all 3 model picks land, by the model

PBAPBA Governors' Cup2 games

Ginebra is the model's pick at 57 percent

The model picks Barangay Ginebra San Miguel at 57 percent, with San Miguel Beermen at 43 percent. The expected winning margin is 1.9 points, which the model rates a fair edge. Both teams have 3 days of rest and neither is on a back-to-back.

Ginebra has won 4 of its last 5 games, with an average margin of 11.0 points. San Miguel is 3 wins and 2 losses over the same span, at an average margin of -0.2 points. Over their last 10 games, Ginebra scored 100.2 points a game and San Miguel scored 115.2.

San Miguel won the latest meeting 101-98 on 3 Nov 2026, after Ginebra won 126-99 and 104-95 earlier in the month. In the PBA Governors' Cup, San Miguel has 10 wins from 15 games and Ginebra has 7 from 13. See the Ginebra vs San Miguel pick page for the full breakdown.

Converge is the model's pick over Rain or Shine

The model picks Converge FiberXers at 57 percent over Rain or Shine Elasto Painters at 43 percent. The expected winning margin is 1.8 points, and the model projects 228.5 total points.

Converge has won 4 of its last 5 games, averaging a 14.6 point margin. Rain or Shine has won 2 of its last 5, with a 1.8 point average margin. Converge has scored 123.6 points a game over its last 10, the highest figure of any team in these 2 PBA games.

Converge won the last 2 meetings, 130-125 on 30 Oct 2026 and 105-89 on 3 Nov 2026. Converge sits 3rd in Group A with 8 wins from 12. Rain or Shine is 2nd in Group B on 6 wins from 10. Check the Converge vs Rain or Shine match page for the live score.

All the picks together

Across the slate, the 3 picks give a 19 percent chance that all land. Each single pick sits at 57 percent, so one miss would spoil the day. Check the PBA predictions and NBA predictions before tip-off.

Track record