Thunder and Spurs lead a 4-game NBA Sunday, with the model backing both

Sunday brings 4 NBA games, all starting between 9:00 AM and 11:00 AM PHT. Most of the day's weight sits on two clear favorites. The model gives the Thunder the strongest chance at 88%, backed by a rating built over many games. Several teams start the day on the 2nd night of a back-to-back, so rest could matter in the early starts.

The model's picks all favor one side in each game, but every matchup still carries real risk. Taken together, the chance that all 4 picks win is 22%. That is why each game deserves its own look. Check the full pick page for each game below, and see the method page for how the ratings work.

Knicks favored on form, with the model at 64%

The model gives the Knicks a 64% chance, with an expected winning margin of 3.5 points. New York's rating of 1695 is above the Cavaliers at 1566. The Knicks sit 5th in the East with 4 wins from 8 games, while Cleveland is 7th with 4 wins from 8 games.

New York's form is strong. They have won 4 of their last 5, with an average margin of 11.6 points. Over their last 10, they have scored 108.1 and allowed 103.7. Cleveland has won 2 of its last 5 and allows 118.8 over 10 games. Cavaliers vs Knicks match page

New York have won their last 4 meetings, the latest on 26 May 2026 at 130-93. Cleveland's last win over New York came on 25 Feb 2026, 109-94. The Knicks have 3 days of rest, while the Cavaliers are on the 2nd night of a back-to-back.

22%chance the model gives all 4 picks winning together

Thunder rated far above Wizards, with the model's top chance

The model gives the Thunder an 88% chance and expects a winning margin of 12.4 points. Their rating of 1659 sits well above the Wizards at 1343. Oklahoma City is 6th in the Western Conference with 6 wins from 8 games, and the model rates it a strong pick, not a settled result. Thunder vs Wizards pick

Form is less one-sided. The Thunder have won 3 of their last 5, with an average margin of -4.2 points. Washington has won 2 of its last 5 and averages a margin of -1.4. Over their last 10 games, the Wizards have allowed 114.2 points per game while scoring 110.5.

The teams met twice in the records shown. Oklahoma City won 132-111 on 21 Mar 2026 and 127-108 on 31 Oct 2025. Both sides are on the 2nd night of a back-to-back, and Washington is 1-0 in that spot this season, so rest looks even.

Warriors favored at 59%, with the Magic on a rough run

The model's pick is the Warriors at 59%, a fair edge rather than a strong one. They expect a winning margin of 2.3 points. Golden State's rating of 1518 is slightly above Orlando's 1483. The Warriors sit 8th in the West with 6 wins from 9 games.

Golden State have won their last 5 games, with an average margin of 11.4 points. Orlando has won just 1 of its last 5, with an average margin of -11.2. The Magic sit 13th in the East with 2 wins from 8 games. Warriors vs Magic match page

The teams have met twice in the records shown. Golden State won 120-97 on 23 Dec 2025, and Orlando won 121-113 on 19 Nov 2025. The Warriors are on game 5 of a 6-game home stand, while Orlando is on game 2 of a 4-game trip.

Spurs favored at 65%, against a top Trail Blazers side

The model gives the Spurs a 65% chance and expects a 3.9-point margin. San Antonio's rating is 1705, against 1566 for Portland. The Trail Blazers top the West table with 6 wins from 7 games, but the model rates them lower overall.

The Spurs have won their last 5 games, averaging a margin of 13.2 points. Portland has won 4 of its last 5, with an average margin of 5.8. San Antonio is 2-0 on the 2nd night of a back-to-back this season. Trail Blazers vs Spurs pick

San Antonio have won 4 of the last 5 meetings. They won 114-95 on 29 Apr 2026 and 114-93 on 26 Apr 2026. Portland's one win in that run came on 22 Apr 2026, 106-103.

All the picks together

Taken together, the model puts the chance that all 4 picks win at 22%. Every pick is a favorite, so the risk stacks up across 4 games. Check the NBA predictions hub for the full list.

Track record (shows after 30 settled picks)