Bucks vs Raptors prediction

The Bucks have struggled lately, winning 1 of their last 5 and losing those games by an average of 13.6 points. Over their last 10 they have allowed 121.2 points a game. The Raptors are steadier at 2-3 over their last 5, with a plus 1.0 average margin. Every form game was played in the past 3 weeks, and the most recent one was on 5 Nov 2026.

Toronto has won 3 of the last 4 meetings, including a 122-94 win on 22 Feb 2026. Milwaukee's only win in that span came on 24 Oct 2025, a 122-116 result. Scott Barnes is averaging 20.9 points and 4.5 assists for Toronto, with R.J. Barrett adding 19.6 points. For Milwaukee, Tyler Herro is putting up 18.7 points a game.

Both teams have 2 days of rest and neither is on a back-to-back, so tiredness is not the main story. The Bucks are in game 1 of a 2-game home stand. The Raptors are in game 4 of a 4-game road trip, which can wear a team down over time. Both sides are 1-1 on the second night of a back-to-back this season.

The ratings are far apart, with Toronto at 1540 and Milwaukee at 1326, and both rest on a lot of games. This season Toronto is 6-7 and Milwaukee is 3-10. The model expects Toronto to win by about 6.5 points, with the game totalling around 230.6 points. One bookmaker has the Bucks at +7, the total at 231, and the Raptors moneyline at 1.30.

The model favours the Toronto Raptors with a 74% chance to win, against 26% for the Bucks. The model confidence is a clear edge, but this is not a sure thing. The Bucks are playing at home, Herro can heat up fast, and the form numbers come from only 5 games for each side. You can compare the two sides on the Bucks and Raptors team pages.

Prices can change before tip-off, so check again closer to game time. A 2-game home stand can give Milwaukee extra energy, and a 4-game road trip can drain Toronto late in the week. Treat the pick as a model estimate, not a promise.