Spurs vs Mavericks prediction

The Spurs have won their last 5 games, with an average winning margin of 16.2 points. Their last 10 games average 113.4 points scored and 107 allowed. The Mavericks are 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5, with an average margin of 0.4. These games were played in the last 3 weeks, so the form is current.

The Spurs have won all 5 head to head meetings in the record, including the latest one 122-106 on 25 Oct 2026. Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama averages 26.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists over 6 games. For Dallas, C. Flagg averages 26.2 points and 7.8 assists over 4 games, while Kyrie Irving adds 22 points over 3 games.

Both teams had 2 days of rest before tip-off, so rest is even. The Spurs are on a home stand, and this is game 3 of 3 of that run at Frost Bank Center. Schedule strain does not look like a big factor here.

The Spurs carry a rating of 1704 against 1436 for Dallas, and both ratings rest on a lot of games. The model expects a winning margin of 10.6 points and a total of 226.6. On the odds, the Spurs are priced at 1.17 on the moneyline and Dallas at 5.2, with a spread of -11.5 for the Spurs and a total line of 227.5. Prices can change before tip-off, and they were fetched on Wed 4 Nov 2026.

The model picks the Spurs with an 85% chance and Dallas at 15%. It is a strong pick, but still not a sure thing. In the NBA standings, the Spurs are 5th in the Western Conference at 5-2, while Dallas is 9th at 4-3.

What could go wrong: Dallas averages 113.0 points per game in this competition, and a hot shooting night could shrink the gap. Flagg and Irving can carry Dallas on a good night. Late changes can shift things, so the result can still swing either way. Check the Spurs vs Mavericks page for the full details.