TNT and Meralco carry the model's picks into Tuesday's PBA Governors' Cup games

Tuesday brings 2 Governors' Cup games, and the model has a favourite in both. TNT Tropang 5G is the strongest pick of the day, with an 83% chance. Meralco Bolts follow at 65%. Both picks are marked as strong, and neither game is a close call.

Form is shaky on both sides of the draw. Macau Black Bears have won only 1 of their last 5 counted games. Blackwater Bossing have won 1 of theirs too. Each team is chasing a place in a table that leaves little room for error.

TNT look to extend their edge over Macau

The model gives TNT Tropang 5G an 83% chance to beat Macau Black Bears, with an expected winning margin of 9.7 points. The model rates TNT at 1591, a rating built on many games, so it is well settled. Macau sits at 1320, from only a few games, so that rating is less sure.

Form points the same way. TNT have won 3 of their last 5, averaging a margin of 12.8. Macau have won 1 and lost 4, averaging a margin of -26.2. Macau have scored 105.1 points a game over their last 10, but they allow 125.7. Both sides had 3 days of rest, and neither is on a back-to-back.

TNT also won both of their previous meetings, 106-103 on 19 Jul 2026 and 119-112 on 24 Apr 2026. Macau are 6th of 7 in Group A with a 2-8 record, while TNT are 3rd on 6-4. The expected total is 216.9 points. Check the Macau Black Bears vs TNT Tropang 5G pick or the Macau Black Bears vs TNT Tropang 5G match page.

83%TNT's model chance against Macau, the highest pick chance on the day

Meralco open as the model's pick over Blackwater

The model gives Meralco Bolts a 65% chance against Blackwater Bossing, with an expected margin of 5.5 points and a total near 205.7 points. Meralco are rated 1546, and Blackwater 1391. The model calls this a fair edge, not a runaway result.

The table tells a different story. Blackwater sit 4th of 6 in Group B with a 3-4 record. Meralco are 6th on 3-5. Meralco have also won all 3 head-to-head meetings, the latest 116-114 on 21 Jul 2026. Meralco have had 60 days of rest before tip-off, while Blackwater had 4.

Recent form is poor for both. Meralco have won 1 and lost 4 in their last 5 counted games, with an average margin of -6.6. Blackwater are also 1 and 4, averaging -8.2. Check the Meralco Bolts vs Blackwater Bossing pick or the Meralco Bolts vs Blackwater Bossing match page.

All the picks together

Taken together, the model puts the chance that both picks win at 54%. That is lower than either pick alone, because the two results stack. Check the PBA predictions and the track record for every graded pick.

Track record (shows after 30 settled picks)